The ink is still wet on last month’s tenuous ceasefire agreement between the government of President Juan Manuel Santos and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), but despite good intentions and more than four years of internationally brokered negotiations, the deal — which was intended to bring an end to more than 52 years of vicious political murders, kidnappings, drug trafficking and other heinous criminal acts that caused the deaths of at least 250,000 people — is already beginning to show signs it might unravel.
The ceasefire, which was announced on Aug. 24 and was supposed to be a precursor for a more extensive peace agreement between the government and Colombia’s largest (and, debatably, most vehement) armed insurgent group, is slated to be put to a public referendum in early October.
But there is no guarantee that the plebiscite will pass.
Certainly, logic would suggest that the majority of Colombian voters would be in favor of the 297-page peace accord that would open the door to a new era of armistice in a country that has for generations seen the tragic consequences of one of the world’s longest armed conflicts.
But while peace is indeed a noble and necessary goal for the war-torn nation, many Colombians will be motivated in their votes by emotions, not logic.
The accord, which provides for the 7,000 FARC paramilitary fighters to set down their arms and confess their crimes in exchange for what will amount to, at best, a few months of community service and, at worst, a blank amnesty, is viewed by many Colombians as being far too lenient.
Even President Santos has pointed out that virtually every Colombian citizen has been — directly or indirectly — affected in some way by the violence of the war, and many potential voters are now looking for retribution, not reconciliation.
Moreover, there is considerable (and well-justified) mistrust on both sides, and after decades of living in the jungle and depending on the lucrative international drug trade for survival, a lot of FARC combatants will not easily assimilate into an urban, law-and-order-based society.
And even if the FARC can reinvent itself from terrorist group to political entity, its radical offshoot, the National Liberation Army (ELN), will be more than eager to pick up the slack and fill the void in the global demand for coca-leaf production and distribution that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s proposed drawdown will create.
For more than half a century, the people of Colombia have been waging war against one another.
They have become masters in the art of war.
Now, they are going to have to learn an even more difficult skill, the art of waging peace.
Thérèse Margolis can be reached at therese.margolis@gmail.com.