The fake news rolling around in Mexico is that U.S. President Donald Trump called President Enrique Peña Nieto (EPN) Saturday and asked him:
“Enrique, could you please come over to the White House and visit me? I need advice on political anti-president mass demonstrations management; you’re the expert.” (Indeed he is, as over the weekend anti-fuel price hike demos continued unabated all over Mexico.)
A meeting was set for the White House and has been officially announced for next week on Tuesday, January 31.
Also on Saturday President Trump spoke to Canada Prime Minister Justine Trudeau. And according to the Prime Minister’s Office, the first thing they talked about was the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), though details as to the conversation are scant, with only two short messages released by the project management office (PMO).
“The PMO said in an email that Trudeau noted the depth of the Canada-U.S. economic relationship, with 35 states having Canada as their top export market.
The PMO email also said the two men reiterated the importance of the relationship between the two countries. (Toronto Sun, Sunday Jan 22.)
On Sunday, during the swearing-in ceremony of the White House staff, Trump announced he would meet separately both with Trudeau and EPN but made it a point to mention that the gatherings were to discuss NAFTA.
“Do you remember NAFTA? I ran part of my campaign on it.”
Indeed he did but at no moment did Trump threaten Canada. On the other hand, his onslaughts against Mexico stealing jobs from the United States were boisterous and sometimes frankly nasty.
Yet on Sunday, President Trump’s tone regarding the Mexican government was a different one. He mentioned that the EPN administration had been most cooperative with the United States and that NAFTA renegotiations would be “for the benefit of both nations.”
While Trump outlined his protectionist measures during his campaign and lull period as president-elect, the Mexican government has been passing through a stifling period with doubt as to what’s going to come from the White House and the U.S. Senate.
And what options does Mexico have to make the most out of the upcoming negotiations?
During the Obama administration, Mexico placed its wager on the great potential of the globalizing Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) seeking to diversify the destination of its export products and still take advantage of the border trade with the United States.
The TPP, at least in Trump’s speech, is dead and there will not be any further negotiating on it. Yet for the remaining 11 nations the multi-lateral negotiations opened up immense possibilities of diversified import-export markets.
Perhaps what’s been considered as the “Trump Threat” is not such a bad deal for Mexico, as the failure to diversify markets stems out of bureaucratic incompetence. Since time immemorial (since the 1960s), Mexico has kept its exports to approximately 80 percent northbound.
It continues to be the same, as the United States remains to be the final destination of most Mexican merchandise, and attempts at finding new markets have been costly and somewhat useless. The proof of the pudding lies in the fact that Mexico still exports 80 percent of its production, NAFTA or no NAFTA.
What’s clear for now is that as of January 31 negotiations will kick off and President Trump will let EPN see his poker cards; it will be then that we can start talking on solid footing as to the future of trade between the two nations.
