Two European elections on Sunday produced a mixed result in the ongoing struggle between populist nationalists and Western political establishments. The populists claimed victory after Italy’s prime minister was forced to resign after losing a referendum on constitutional reforms. But Austria’s nationalist right was defeated in a presidential vote — and the result in Italy may have been, for the continent’s centrists, a blessing in disguise.
Matteo Renzi, a center-left reformer, staked his prime ministership on a complex reform that would have emasculated Italy’s Senate and stripped powers from regional governments. The vote turned into a referendum on his nearly three years in power, with the populist Five Star Movement agitating for a “no” vote. The 60 percent margin defeat caused the party’s leaders to boast euphorically about an inevitable Five Star government — which would be a potentially fatal setback for the European Union.
The constitutional changes weren’t just opposed by the populists, however. Pillars of the Italian establishment, such as former prime minister Mario Monti, argued against them as well, and for good reason. Designed shortsightedly by Renzi to allow him to form a government capable of ramming through the structural reforms Italy needs, they would have allowed a party that won only a plurality in a general election to dominate the political system. That could have opened the door for Five Star or other extremist movements to grab power.
As it is, Italy’s government is likely to be turned over to an establishment caretaker while Parliament argues over a new election law. When a vote is finally held, more likely in 2018 than next year, a majority coalition probably will be needed to form a government, making a populist takeover less likely. In the meantime, the main risk will be that shaky Italian banks trying to raise fresh capital will lurch toward failure. But that is the kind of crisis that Europe’s political and financial leaders are used to managing.
Against this concerning but muddled result, Austria’s presidential election offered a clear signal. Norbert Hofer of the far-right Freedom Party waged a campaign that might have been modeled on that of Donald Trump, complete with slurs against Muslims and immigrants and the spreading of malicious fake news. He was decisively beaten by independent Alexander Van der Bellen, who attributed his win to a “broad movement” for “freedom, equality and solidarity,” one his campaign manager predicted could spread across Europe.
With crucial elections still to come next year in the Netherlands, France and Germany, all pitting right-wing populists against pro-European centrists, liberal democrats across the West have to hope that Austria was an augur of a gathering resistance to extremism.
