The war is raging in and around Aleppo. It is about breaking the siege of the eastern part of Syria’s largest city. The Assad forces and their allies, supported by intensive aerial bombardment from the Russian Air Force achieved their goal of encircling the rebels’ held section, threatening a quarter of a million of civilians with starvation. The Russians were quick in announcing a humanitarian initiative by opening four corridors for the besieged population to leave, granting them safe passage. The Russian move was met with skepticism, and calls to put the operation under UN auspices. Nothing was materialized especially with the absence of a ceasefire between the combatants.
The picture was reversed last weekend, when the rebels were able to break through the regime forces’ lines in south western Aleppo, opening the way to the eastern part and threatening the long-held western Aleppo with a counter siege.
It is not clear if the rebels can hold to their new positions and for how long, considering the 600 sorties of Russian and Syrian planes over the city during the weekend. Once again Aleppo seems to be decisive in the duel. Its fate will have its impact on the Syrian war at this episode.
During the intensified battles, the American-Russian conversations were going on, without having any effect on the burning ground in Syria. While Syrians and Russians were carrying out an indiscriminate pounding of Aleppo, including attacks on six hospitals in and around the city.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was wondering about the Russian humanitarian corridors, and if it is all a ruse. He threatened that “it has the risk of completely breaking apart the level of cooperation between the two countries.” This is at a time when people see in the Russians’ talk a cover for their ongoing military actions and plan.
The Obama administration seems to be determined to keep playing the fool in its dealing with the Russians on Syria, and all came on the detriment of the Syrian people who have paid so far half a million dead and 10 million displaced in their country and abroad. President Obama, the brilliant campaigner and charismatic leader, will not be able to escape his historic responsibility in the Syrian catastrophe.
He didn’t support the opposition, considering them terrorists or a bunch of amateurs who cannot confront a professional and large army, supported by tested militias. Facts proved him wrong, only the Russian intervention in September 2015 saved the Assad regime.
He didn’t react against the massive Iranian intervention, and the mobilizing of thousands of fighters from Pakistan to Lebanon, breaking all rules in defiance of Security Council resolutions.
He opposed the creation of safe areas for the refugees inside Syria in a way that their crisis is threatening the security and social balance in surrounding and faraway countries.
He took a neutral position towards a determined and decisive Russian intervention, then he sent John Kerry to start inconclusive conversations, which has served as a diplomatic cover for Russian military actions until this moment. He granted President Putin full power in Syria, predicting that he will be caught in its quagmire, proving himself wrong again.
The Syrian opposition was denied the moral, political and military support. They never asked for “American boots on the ground” even if the Russians now have 4,000 ground force on their base in Latakia. Defending his “legacy” in the beginning, to withdraw American troops from war zones in Afghanistan and the Middle East, President Obama found himself, due to circumstances, sending thousands to Iraq and a few hundreds, so far to Syria.
Despite his ongoing contracts and conversations with Moscow, President Obama expressed lately his worries about an enduring deal with his counterpart. “I’m not confident that we can trust the Russians of Vladimir Putin. Whenever you are trying to broker any kind of deal with an individual like that, or a country like that, you have got to go with some skepticism.” He said that when his administration was talking with Putin’s government about a plan to share intelligence and coordinate air strikes against I.S. and other military groups from the Syrian opposition, a move which will weaken further the rebels and empower more president Assad without any guarantee of investing this goodwill in a political process.
This month was supposed to see a draft for a new Syrian constitution, and some diplomatic breakthrough, but the UN special envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura said last week that he aimed to convene a new round of peace talks toward the end of August, quietly scrapping a previous August 1 deadline, to reach agreement for a political transition.
The American-Russian conversations are consuming precious time, without concrete results on the ground due to the difference in their agendas. The Americans want to put the Syrian dialogue on track without offering the needed support for the opposition. The Russians are committed to support the Assad regime in achieving its military goals, which will lead to a fait accompli and a “political” solution according to Assad’s liking.
In the meantime, both superpowers are pretending to concentrate on fighting terrorism. While the world was preoccupied a few years ago by a shadowy group called Al-Qaeda, now we are facing large armies of sectarian and nationalistic militias who are roaming with their terror, without control over territories in the Levant and North Africa with greater power and danger everyday.
