First they were tenuous allies.
Then they were devout enemies.
Now they seem to be dancing a two-step right into a blossoming bromance, as they meet today in St. Petersburg for a diplomatic reset of the relationship.
For the last two years, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have had a love-hate relationship that would rival that of the steamiest telenovela, with just as many surprise twists in their on-again-off-again friendship.
Before Putin decided to invade and annex Crimea in 2014, the Russian-Turkish relationship was on a roll, with combined two-way trade at a historic $32 billion a year high.
In fact, Russia was Turkey’s second-largest trade partner, right after Germany, and Russian tourists were flocking to the Middle Eastern country in droves to soak up the Turkish sun and visit historic sites.
But then things began to sour between the two countries, as Ankara steadfastly sided with the West on issues regarding Syria.
While Moscow maintained — and still maintains — that Bashir al-Assad is the legitimate president of Syria and that no foreign government has the right to overthrow him, Ankara insisted that there can be no viable resolution to the Syrian crisis as long as Assad is still in power.
This clash of views contributed to considerable strain in Russian-Turkish ties, as did Russia’s cozy friendship with Greece, Cyprus and Armenia, diehard enemies of Turkey.
And, oh, yes, there was that little matter of Turkey downing a Russian warplane over Syria last November, which definitely threw a wrench into the bilateral love affair.
But then, just when it looked like Putin and Erdoğan were ready to sign the final papers in their political divorce, along came a fizzled coup in Turkey in July and suddenly the two oligarchs are back to do-si-doing with one another. (Never underestimate the powers of a failed putsch to recalibrate political alliances.)
Yup, when push came to shove for Erdoğan and his merry band of despots, Putin was right there before anyone else, condemning the unscrupulous attempt to overthrow the duly elected Turkish president.
And when Erdoğan responded to the coup with a massive purge of 18,000 military brass, opposition leaders, teachers, journalists and intellectuals who rubbed him the wrong way, Putin essentially patted him on the back for knowing how to deal with such dangerous troublemakers.
As the West grows more and more tired of Erdoğan’s tomfooleries, the Turkish president is finding a like-thinking authoritarian in Putin.
The relationship between Putin and Erdoğan is certainly one of mutual geopolitical convenience, and that opportunism will continue to be defined by current global issues.
But at the heart of the Putin-Erdoğan liaison is the fact that both men are megalomaniacs who will do whatever it takes to stay in power and who have little regard for the fundamental freedoms that are the cornerstones of democracy.
And it is that similarity of purpose and converging interests that is behind the diplomatic rapprochement and that keeps the two leaders constantly renewing each other’s dance cards.
Thérèse Margolis can be reached at [email protected].
