Last week, tensions between the United States and Mexico (or, more precisely, newly instated U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto) reached a near breaking point.
The two men (and by extension, their respective governments) were on the verge of launching the first missiles in a bilateral ballistic trade war that would have been counterproductive for both sides.
At the heart of the tensions was Trump’s repeated insistence that Mexico would pay for a $15 billion wall to keep undocumented immigrants from entering the United States.
Peña Nieto, on the other hand, said he adamantly opposes the wall and repeatedly stated that Mexico will not pay for its construction.
When Trump moved full speed ahead with his plan to start building the wall, vowing on whatever mass media he came across that Mexico would, in the end, foot the bill, adding that he would revisit Washington’s commitments within the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Peña Nieto upped the ante by canceling a visit to Washington, D.C., and threatening to pull out of NAFTA altogether.
For a few days, it looked like neither side was going to budge, and a longstanding and mutually beneficial friendship was about to be irredeemably fragmented, leading to serious economic consequences for both countries.
Fortunately, calmer heads prevailed, and on Friday, the two leaders spoke on the phone, hopefully setting a course for more positive relations in the months ahead.
Trump described the one-hour conversation as “very, very friendly,” but quickly added that the call was a prelude to future tough negotiations to review and restructure bilateral trade ties.
Peña Nieto, on the other hand, was less positive in describing the call, saying it is a “constructive and productive conversation” that encompassed a wide range of binational topics, including joint efforts to curb drug trafficking and the flow of illegal arms.
One of the key upshots of the kiss-and-make-up phone call was an agreement by both sides to keep discussions regarding how the wall will be paid for behind closed doors.
The idea that the best international diplomacy is conducted behind closed doors has been long brandished in global mediation circles, and it took on more relevance when real time global communication became a reality and the so-called CNN effect on foreign policy became inescapable.
We all know that the media can fan small political fires into uncontrollable massive blazes that can lead to serious diplomatic ruptures, and the public discourse between Trump and Peña Nieto was threatening to undo decades of a carefully cultivated bilateral friendship.
The issue of the wall and how it will be financed is extremely touchy, and one that will have to be reviewed and reconsidered on both sides of the Rio Grande in the months ahead.
Clearly, Mexico will not directly pay for the wall’s construction.
But the application of increased tariffs on goods produced in Mexico or taxes on remittances from Mexicans living in the United States have been floated by the Trump administration as possible indirect ways of shifting the cost across the border.
How Mexico would react to those measures is yet to be seen.
Certainly, the issue of the wall and its financing is not going to go away any time soon, and it is putting a strain on the bilateral friendship.
But regardless of what the final outcome may turn out to be on that issue, it is important to remember that the bilateral relationship is far more extensive than the issue of walls and immigration.
The United States and Mexico share more than 2,000 miles of border; they share a multifaceted and complex economic, political, cultural and social interdependence that is at the core of a symbiotic relationship that neither side can afford to lose.
Combined two-way trade amounts to an exchange of $1.4 billion in goods and services every day, and in the 23 years since NAFTA was implemented, investment ties have skyrocketed on both sides of the border.
Mexico is the United States’ second-largest export market (after Canada) and third-largest trading partner (after Canada and China).
And investment is not just one-sided.
According to U.S. Embassy figures, while stock foreign direct investment by U.S. companies in Mexico comes to about $101 billion, Mexican investment in the United States now amounts to $17.6 billion, and has grown by over 35 percent the past five years.
In fact, Mexico is the seventh-fastest growing investor country in the United States and the 15th-largest investor in the United States.
Moreover, a lot more than commercial and economic issues bind the two countries together.
Two-way visa emissions have increased by 45 percent in the last 10 years, with 20 million Mexicans visiting the United States in 2016, and they spent an estimated $10.5 billion.
There were over 25 million U.S. visitors to Mexico in 2016, making Mexico the top destination of U.S. travelers.
In addition, a million U.S. citizens live in Mexico.
In September 2013, Vice President Biden and his Mexican government counterparts launched the High Level Economic Dialogue (HLED) to further elevate and strengthen the U.S.-Mexico bilateral commercial and economic relationship.
Through the North American Leaders’ Summit, the United States and Mexico (along with Canada) cooperate to improve North American competitiveness, ensure the safety of their citizens and promote clean energy and a healthy environment.
The countries also cooperate on hemispheric and global challenges, such as managing trans-border infectious diseases and seeking greater integration to respond to challenges of transnational organized crime.
The United States and Mexico are working together on global issues such as clean air and climate policies, as well as narcotics and human trafficking, arms smuggling and money laundering.
The Merida Initiative is an unprecedented partnership between the United States and Mexico to address violence and criminality while strengthening the rule of law and the respect for human rights and building strong and resilient communities.
Government-to-government cooperation is allowing Mexico and the United States to work together to help ensure that U.S.-born migrant children have access to education and other basic services in Mexico.
And academic exchange and joint research between the countries through the Bilateral Forum on Higher Education, Research and Innovation is increasing mutual innovation and competitiveness.
Although there will always be diplomatic spats between the two countries, the bilateral relationship between the United States and Mexico has matured and continues to develop.
And by improving communications and attempting to resolve bilateral difference through candid discussions, the United States and Mexico have opened new avenues for development.
Simply put, Mexico and the United States desperately need one another, and escalating tensions over any dispute is detrimental for both sides.
The two countries have resolved thorny issues in the past, and no doubt, they will find a mutually acceptable compromise regarding the wall and its financing.
In the meantime, it is important for both Trump and Peña Nieto to focus on the areas where they agree and to dial their confrontations down a notch, especially in the public eye.
Thérèse Margolis can be reached at [email protected].
