North Korean President Kim Jong-un likes to play King of the Mountain, brandishing his arsenal of nuclear weapons at every opportunity to show that world that he is politically invincible and no one can usurp his power.
Defiantly parading his ballistic missiles through Kim Il-sung Square (named for his grandfather, who was the start of the despotic Kim dynasty) escorted by ranks of goose-stepping soldiers (North Korea has the fourth-largest standing army in the world) and frequently testing his hoard of atomic devices to demonstrate his nuclear capabilities, Kim has become the perilous showboat of the thermonuclear world.
And Kim’s stockpile of nuclear toys just keeps on growing.
According to some analysts, North Korea can produce a nuclear bomb every six or seven weeks, and the frequency of Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile tests is increasing at an alarming exponential pace.
But for all his bluster and bravado, Kim is not equipped to face off with the West in a nuclear showdown.
Simply put, in a nuclear confrontation with Washington, Pyongyang would be sorely outgunned.
To begin with, the United States spends an estimated about $600 billion a year on defense; North Korea’s annual military budget is about $7 billion.
According to experts at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), North Korea currently has about 12 nuclear weapons in its stockpiles, and could have a total of 50 by the year 2020.
Since the majority of those weapons would probably be at least eight times more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, they are certainly cause for concern.
But in sheer numbers, the size of North Korea’s nuclear inventory pales against that of Uncle Sam’s, which totals about 6,800, according to the IAEA.
Kim likes to boast that his government already has the capability of reaching the United States with nuclear weapons.
But, in fact, most of North Korea’s warheads are short-range and middle-range missiles (which, theoretically, could strike South Korea and Japan, but not much further).
And if Pyongyang were to launch a nuclear weapon at either of these two nations, the international repercussions — including a possible nuclear response — would be devastating for Kim and his authoritarian regime.
More importantly, Pyongyang has not yet mastered the art of accuracy in its launchings, which, in essence, renders the threat of a North Korean nuclear attack ineffective at best and self-defacing at worse.
In the game of nuclear intimidation, a miss is as good as a mile.
In the last decade, North Korea has conducted a half dozen nuclear tests, and egged on by international concern, Kim keeps on upping the ante, increasingly threatening to use his warheads to take down his Western enemies.
But if push were ever to come to shove, Kim would find himself face-to-face with an international nuclear Goliath that would stomp out his armory in a matter of minutes.
In a nuclear poker playoff, Kim can’t risk the West calling his bluff.
Thérèse Margolis can be reached at [email protected].
