This writer made three predictions last Friday, which turned out to be correct on Saturday during the meeting in Peru of the leaders of the 21 nations that make up the Asian Pacific Economic Alliance.
One was that President Barack Obama would be playing the sitting duck U.S. representative rather than president. That was indeed true and the one thing all Pacific Rim leaders noticed that in his speeches Obama did not mention the 12-nation Trans Pacific Alliance (TPP) he so diligently promoted and which his successor at the White House Donald Trump says will be undone.
Two is that Beyond Obama’s silence, the remaining 11 TPP presidents would immediately get their act together and cast Donald Trump’s potential isolationist “Fortress America” attitude aside and clearly point out that the TPP is a done deal, “with or without the United States.” This was repeated verbatim by all participants who, besides, did not discard the idea of other free trade options.
Chinese president Xi Jinping courted the TPP nations to become part of a larger conglomerate this time led by China which is by now not just a great exporter but a portentous consumer market. His proposal to the APEC members was the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which as of now does not include any nation belonging to the American continent.
Xi, however, did not see this as a problem.
“China will not shut its door to the outside of the world but open it more,” Xi Jinping said during his keynote address at the APEC meeting.
“We’re going to make sure the fruits of development are shared,” he added.
There is no saying as to what we will have a year from now at the next APEC Summit in Vietnam but should The Donald make good on all the protectionist tirades he made during his presidential campaign, the rest of the Pacific Rim nations will surely be singing to a different tune.
But again, prediction was right and Obama played his lame duck president role to perfection and the 11 remaining TPP nations will surely continue down the path that was initially trodden by the previous U.S. administration going back to George Bush Sr. in 1989, when the move to form what was then called the “Pacific Rim Alliance” began to take shape.
Thirdly, Canada’s Justin Trudeau and Mexico’s Enrique Peña Nieto, both representatives of the current interest of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) voiced their concerns about Trump’s tirades about pulling the United States out of the deal if after renegotiations Canada and Mexico don’t come to new terms.
Prime Minister Trudeau showed patience saying that once this issue comes his way he will negotiate with the Trump Administration on the terms it presents and respond accordingly.
President Peña Nieto, however, used a different tone saying no to renegotiation but rather that he’d like to see a “modernization” of NAFTA without going into any specific for the same reason others is sitting it out for the Christmas lull before the alleged storm when Trump is sworn into office on January 20, 2017.
Conclusion on the diverse opinions on the international commerce accords is that if the United States is out of the TPP, China is in with its own proposal and definitely most willing to become the lead ship for the joint economic development of the Pacific Rim nations.
Not only that but it’s definitely willing to grab the helm of a ship Donald Trump sees as foundering without the United States.
You know, dear American readers, there is such a thing as the rest of the world.