NACHA CATTAN
THE WASHINGTON POST
Banco de Mexico, led by Governor Agustin Carstens, held the overnight rate at 3.75 percent Friday as forecast by all 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The board lifted borrowing costs half a point in an unscheduled meeting as part of coordinated actions with the government announced Feb. 17 to bolster the currency and head off an increase in inflation expectations. The peso has responded well, strengthening the most among major currencies after Brazil since then, which opens the door for the central bank to return to its previous strategy of pairing rate increases with the Fed, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“The authorities were quite successful in anchoring the peso,” Alberto Ramos, chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs in New York, said before the rate decision. “It remains prudent to follow the Fed.”
The authorities were quite successful in anchoring the peso. It remains prudent to follow the Fed.”
-Alberto Ramos. Chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs
The Fed kept rates steady on Wednesday and scaled back forecasts for interest-rate increases this year due to weaker global growth. Mexico’s central bank cut its own forecast for the nation’s growth this year to 2 percent to 3 percent from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent on March 3, saying that slower U.S. industrial activity will hurt demand for the nation’s goods. The U.S. is the destination for 80 percent of Mexico’s exports.
Economic weakness in Mexico and the peso’s recent appreciation, along with a rise in global oil prices and a dovish Fed, make it more likely the central bank will remain on hold for longer, according to Bank of America Corp.
“Given the turn of events since Banxico hiked 50 basis points, now the risk is that if things continue to be this way, the economy may decelerate,” Carlos Capistran, chief Mexico economist at Bank of America, said before the rate decision.
Capistran sees Banxico remaining on hold until a quarter-point increase in the fourth quarter, adding that he doesn’t see the central bank cutting rates as global uncertainty could lead to more peso weakness. The peso is the best performer among the 16 most traded currencies since reaching a record low of 19.4448 per dollar on Feb. 11, rising 12 percent.
Manuel Sanchez, a central bank deputy governor, said in an interview March 8 that he’s concerned about the risks of further peso depreciation spurring inflation. After slowing last year to levels not seen since the late 1960s, inflation quickened to 2.87 percent in February. Policy makers expect the annual pace of consumer price increase to rise slightly above the 3 percent target in the second and third quarters.
